Tight GTA Housing Market Conditions Sustain Strong Price Growth

TORONTO, Oct. 05, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — September marked the transition from the slower summer market to the busier fall market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Every year, we generally see an uptick in sales, average selling price and listings after Labour Day, and September 2021 was no different. Sales increased relative to August and were also at the third-highest mark on record for the month of September. The average selling price was up both month-over-month and year-over-year.

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,046 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in September 2021 – up in line with the regular seasonal trend from August. Compared to last year, market conditions tightened noticeably, with sales representing a substantially higher share of listings, and a significantly lower number of new listings across the board. Resurgence in the condo market was a factor in the higher share of listings sold. The total number of sales was down 18 per cent from 2020’s record September result, in large part due to the lower number of new listings, which were down 34 per cent from the same time last year.

“Demand has remained incredibly robust throughout September with many qualified buyers who would buy a home tomorrow provided they could find a suitable property. With new listings in September down by one third compared to last year, purchasing a home for many is easier said than done. The lack of housing supply and choice has reached a critical juncture. Bandaid policies to artificially suppress demand have not been effective. This is not an issue that can be solved by one level of government alone. There needs to be collaboration federally, provincially, and locally on a solution,” said Kevin Crigger, TRREB President.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 19.1 per cent year-over-year in September 2021. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 18.3 per cent year-over-year to $1,136,280.

“Price growth in September continued to be driven by the low-rise market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. However, competition between buyers for condo apartments has picked up markedly over the past year, which has led to an acceleration in price growth over the past few months as first-time buyers re-entered the ownership market. Look for this trend to continue,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB Chief Market Analyst.

“Housing was a key issue in last month’s federal election. Ontario provincial and municipal elections are on the horizon in 2022. Much of the heavy lifting required to bring more housing online, from a policy perspective, happens at the provincial and local levels. These levels of government need to be on the same page. This should be an important topic for debate during the upcoming elections,” said John DiMichele, TRREB CEO.

Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price September 1–30, 2021
  2021 2020
  Sales Average Price New
Listings
Sales Average Price New
Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 3,397 1,090,196 5,946 3,544 1,022,227 8,703
Rest of GTA (“905”) 5,649 1,163,992 7,537 7,489 931,456 11,738
GTA 9,046 1,136,280 13,483 11,033 960,613 20,441
TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type September 1–30, 2021
  Sales Average Price
  416 905 Total 416 905 Total
             
Detached 895 3,013 3,908 1,778,928 1,451,471 1,526,465
Yr./Yr. % Change -22.60% -31.10% -29.30% 19.50% 31.40% 28.90%
Semi-Detached 325 499 824 1,304,504 991,073 1,114,696
Yr./Yr. % Change -22.80% -30.20% -27.50% 13.90% 25.20% 20.80%
Townhouse 365 1,193 1,558 930,056 902,853 909,226
Yr./Yr. % Change -8.80% -20.00% -17.60% 7.20% 26.00% 21.50%
Condo Apartment 1,792 872 2,664 744,730 634,111 708,521
Yr./Yr. % Change 16.00% 7.30% 13.00% 8.50% 18.00% 11.60%
September 2021 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI
  Composite
(All Types)
Single-Family
Detached
Single-Family
Attached
Townhouse Apartment
TRREB Total 19.09% 23.54% 22.60% 18.15% 9.08%
Halton Region 24.13% 24.15% 26.61% 22.04% 17.38%
Peel Region 19.99% 23.67% 23.55% 16.61% 8.92%
City of Toronto 10.37% 14.28% 12.30% 12.26% 7.36%
York Region 22.85% 24.71% 25.28% 19.93% 13.01%
Durham Region 32.18% 32.36% 33.39% 31.83% 21.55%
Orangeville 22.66% 22.75% 24.33% 28.37% 7.06%
South Simcoe County1 32.38% 35.50% 40.68% 22.74% 17.55%
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board  
1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth
Year-to-Date Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price September 2021
  2021 2020
  Sales Average Price New
Listings
Sales Average Price New
Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 33,783 1,047,334 51,689 22,599 991,624 45,824
Rest of GTA (“905”) 63,229 1,096,504 87,927 46,082 884,984 75,749
GTA 97,012 1,079,381 139,616 68,681 920,073 121,573
YTD TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type September 2021
  Sales Average Price
  416 905 Total 416 905 Total
             
Detached 8,949 35,299 44,248 1,701,648 1,335,130 1,409,257
Yr./Yr. % Change 29.5% 31.0% 30.7% 15.0% 28.8% 25.0%
Semi-Detached 3,110 5,862 8,972 1,282,510 933,255 1,054,319
Yr./Yr. % Change 43.0% 33.7% 36.8% 9.7% 22.3% 17.5%
Townhouse 3,724 13,174 16,898 925,287 845,340 862,959
Yr./Yr. % Change 49.4% 41.6% 43.2% 10.3% 21.3% 18.7%
Condo Apartment 17,796 8,192 25,988 706,240 599,469 672,583
Yr./Yr. % Change 63.5% 69.0% 65.2% 3.0% 13.2% 5.5%

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Seasonally Adjusted TRREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1  
         
  Sales Month-over-Month %
Chg.
Average Price Month-over-Month %
Chg.
September ’20 10,115 -5.3% $949,073 -3.3%
October ’20 9,770 -3.4% $956,244 0.8%
November ’20 9,393 -3.9% $964,931 0.9%
December ’20 11,241 19.7% $977,584 1.3%
January ’21 11,673 3.8% $1,008,262 3.1%
February ’21 12,832 9.9% $1,032,784 2.4%
March ’21 12,964 1.0% $1,089,098 5.5%
April ’21 10,767 -16.9% $1,051,432 -3.5%
May ’21 9,864 -8.4% $1,063,784 1.2%
June ’21 9,016 -8.6% $1,064,119 0.0%
July ’21 8,842 -1.9% $1,076,706 1.2%
August ’21 8,649 -2.2% $1,103,468 2.5%
September ’21 8,712 0.7% $1,123,277 1.8%
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment. 1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.  

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